Recent Evolution of the March-May Rainfall in East Africa: Spatial Patterns and Sub-seasonal Scenarios

Citation:
Philippon N, Camberlin P, Moron V, Gitau W, Ozer P. "Recent Evolution of the March-May Rainfall in East Africa: Spatial Patterns and Sub-seasonal Scenarios." Actes du 27e Colloque International de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie. 2014:687-692.

Abstract:

Using raingauge daily rainfall data documenting the Horn of Africa and the Long Rains over the period 1961-2012, the aim of this study is three-fold:1/ confirming the drying trend detected by Lyon et DeWitt (2012) during the Long Rains using gridded rainfall, 2/ understanding how this drying is expressed at the intraannual time scale using the sub-seasonal scenario approach developed by Moron et al. (2013) and 3/ assess its impact on vegetation. A drying is actually measured using raingauge data but is less severe than the one measured using gridded data. It is the strongest at the driest stations and during the rainfall climatological peak (April). It seems to be associated with a higher frequency of the dry subseasonal scenarios i.e. characterized by negative rainfall anomalies through the whole or the core of the seasonal cycle. But we don't observe yet a diminution of the vegetation photosynthetic activity in response to the rainfall decrease. To the contrary, the Rainfall Use Efficiency (RUE) displays a slightly positive trend.

ORBi

UoN Websites Search