A SIRD model applied to COVID-19 dynamics and intervention strategies during the first wave in Kenya

Ogana W, Juma VO, Bulimo WD. A SIRD model applied to COVID-19 dynamics and intervention strategies during the first wave in Kenya. medRxiv. 2021:2021.03.17.21253626.


The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kenya in March 2020 and soon after non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were established to control the spread of the disease. The NPIs consisted, and continue to consist, of mitigation measures followed by a period of relaxation of some of the measures. In this paper, we use a deterministic mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of the disease, during the first wave, and relate it to the intervention measures. In the process, we develop a new method for estimating the disease parameters. Our solutions yield a basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.76, which is consistent with other solutions. The results further show that the initial mitigation reduced disease transmission by 40% while the subsequent relaxation increased transmission by 25%. We also propose a mathematical model on how interventions of known magnitudes collectively affect disease transmission rates. The modelled positivity rate curve compares well with observations. If interventions of unknown magnitudes have occurred, and data is available on the positivity rate, we use the method of planar envelopes around a curve to deduce the modelled positivity rate and the magnitudes of the interventions. Our solutions deduce mitigation and relaxation effects of 42.5% and 26%, respectively; these percentages are close to values obtained by the solution of the SIRD system. Our methods so far apply to a single wave; there is a need to investigate the possibility of extending them to handle multiple waves.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialNot a clinical trialFunding StatementNo funding supportAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:KNH-UoN Ethics and Research Committee https://erc.uonbi.ac.keAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData sources: All the data used is in the public domain [1, 44, 56, 57]




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