Multistate Modelling Vertical Transmission and Determination of R0 Using Transition Intensities

Citation:
Orowe I, Ottieno J, Onyango N. "Multistate Modelling Vertical Transmission and Determination of R0 Using Transition Intensities." Applied Mathematical Sciences. 2015;9(79):3941-3956.

Abstract:

In this paper multi-state modelling is used to determine the proba- bility distribution of the different states of vertical transmission of HIV. We start with a healthy-infected-dead three state model which we then modify and extend to a four state healthy-infected-treated-Aids four state model. Using the matrix approach we calculate their respection transition probabilities and compare the two models using the basic re- production number. In both models R0 < 1 suggesting that this mode of transmission will eventually be contained.

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