Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Anemia among children under 5 years in Guinea

Thierno Souleymane Barry, Oscar Ngesa, Onyango NO, Mwambi H. "Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Anemia among children under 5 years in Guinea.". 2021.


Bacground: Anemia is a major public health problem in Africa with an increasing number of children under 5
years getting infected. Guinea is one of the most affected countries. In 2018, the prevalence rate was 75% in
children under 5 years. This study sought to identify the factors associated with anemia and to map spatial
variation of anemia across the eight (8) regions in Guinea for children under 5 years, which can provide
guidance for control programs for the reduction of the disease.
Methods: Data from the Guinea Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS5) 2016 was used for this study. A
total of 2609 children under 5 years who had full covariate information were used in the analysis. Spatial
binomial logistic regression methodology was undertaken via Bayesian estimation based on Markov chain
Monte Carlo (McMC) using WinBUGS software version 1.4.
Results: Our findings revealed that 77% of children under 5 years in Guinea had anemia and the prevalence in
the regions ranged from 70.32% (Conakry) to 83.60% (N’Zerekore) across the country. After adjusting for non
spatial and spatial random effects in the model, older children (48–59 months) (OR: 0.47, CI [0.29 0.70]) were
less likely to be anemic compared to those who are younger (0-11 months). Children whose mothers have
completed secondary education or more had a reduced chance of anemia infection by 33% (OR: 0.67, CI [0.49
0.90]) and Children from household heads from Kissi ethnic group are less likely to have anemia than their
counterparts whose leader is from Soussou (OR: 0.48, CI [0.22 0.91]).
Conclusion: The spatial analysis allowed the identification of high-risk areas as well as the identification of
socio-economic and demographic factors associated with anemia among children under 5 years. Such an
analysis is important in helping policy makers and health practitioners in developing programs geared towards
control and management of anemia among children under 5 years in the country.


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