Stepwise regression; Rainfall variability; Polynomial function; Solar cycle period; Nairobi.

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Muthama NJ, M Moses Manene, Ndetei CJ. "Simulation of decadal precipitation over Nairobi in Kenya." Journal For Science. 2017;13:43-54. AbstractWebsite

: In investigating Kenya rainfall variability and its relationship to other climatic
elements it has become imperative to analyze the irregularly distributed rainfall events in time.
To meet this requirement, this study used a stepwise regression technique. The study seeks to
improve existing rainfall monitoring and prediction in Nairobi. Monthly rainfall data was fitted
to several mathematical functions. The best mathematical model which best simulated the
March-May (MAM) and October -December (OND) seasonal rainfall over the three stations of
analysis was chosen using a stepwise regression technique. The value of R-squared for the best
fit was computed to show the percentage of rainfall information that is explained by the
variation in the independent (time) variable. From the results obtained, the stepwise regression
technique selected the fourth degree polynomial as the best fit for analyzing the March-May
(MAM) and October -December (OND) seasonal rainfall data set. Solar cycle period of ten (10)
years was employed to get the fourth degree polynomial variables. Hence from the study, it can
be deducted that the 4th degree polynomial function can be used to predict the peak and the
general pattern of seasonal rainfall over Nairobi, with acceptable error values. This information

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