Past and projected rainfall and temperature trends in a sub-humid Montane Forest in Northern Kenya based on the CMIP5 model ensemble

Citation:
Muhati, G. L., Olago D., & Olaka L. (2018).  Past and projected rainfall and temperature trends in a sub-humid Montane Forest in Northern Kenya based on the CMIP5 model ensemble. Global ecology and conservation. 16, e00469.

Abstract:

Abstract

This study presents past and projected temporal changes in mean temperature and rainfall around the Marsabit Forest Reserve (MFR), a sub-humid montane forest in Kenya. Rainfall data for the period 1961–2014 and temperature data for the period 1972–2011 were acquired from the Marsabit meteorological station. Future projections (2006–2100) were based on data from five models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Climate simulations for the 2071–2100 period were compared to the 1961–1990 IPCC baseline period to establish significant change. The MFR recorded a mean rainfall of 784 mm which declined annually at a rate of 6 mm over the period of the study. The long rains (March–May) recorded a mean of 379 mm and decreased annually by 10 mm while the short rains (October–December) recorded a mean of 269 mm and decreased annually by 2 mm between 1961 and 2014, with no statistically significant trend (p > 0.05).

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