Predictability Potential of the Seasonal Rainfall over Kenya Using Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Index

Citation:
M DRININDAJOSEPH. "Predictability Potential of the Seasonal Rainfall over Kenya Using Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Index.". In: KMS Workshop. Kenya Met Soc; 2005.

Abstract:

Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an important natural fluctuation observed in the stratosphere temperatures, winds and trace gases (including ozone). Since a quasi-biennial oscillation is also detected in weather parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), it has potential for the prediction of seasonal rainfall over Kenya. Prediction of rainfall is very important in ensuring food security. This study investigated the predictability of the seasonal rainfall over Kenya using QBO. Various methods were employed in the study. This included lag correlation composite analysis and analogue methods. Some locations indicated significant correlation values were observed between rainfall and QBO at lag between six to twelve months. It was however noted that the phase of QBO rather than the actual values may be used to predict seasonal rainfall over Kenya. The link between the tropospheric circulation and the QBO phase was also Investigated. The results was used to explain the mechanism linking the rainfall to QBO.

Notes:

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