Stover, J, Achia T, Mohamed BF, Oyugi FJO, Mutua GN, Anzala O.  2012.  What impact would an HIV/AIDS vaccine have on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Kenya? Abstract

To estimate the potential impact of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Kenya. Design: The Kenyan HIV/AIDS epidemic was modeled using the most current data from national sources including epidemiology and behavioral surveillance. The model’s baseline projection was validated against adult HIV prevalence at antenatal clinics and ge- neral population surveys. The model was used to analyze the effects of scaling up current pre- vention programs and adding potential HIV vac- cines with varying levels of effectiveness and coverage. Results: Even with full scale-up of currently available prevention, care and treat- ment programs, new infections will continue to burden Kenya. The introduction of a partially ef- fective AIDS vaccine could significantly alter the trajectory of the epidemic. Conclusion: The game changing impact that an AIDS vaccine could have on the AIDS epidemic in Kenya under- scores the importance of sustaining political support and financial investment to accelerate HIV/AIDS vaccine research and development.


Anzala, O, Sanders EJ, Kamali A, Katende M, Mutua GN, Ruzagira E, Stevens G, Simek M, Price M.  2010.  Sensitivity and specificity of HIV rapid tests used for research and voluntary counselling and testing. Abstract

HIV rapid tests (RT) are a quick and non-technically demanding means to perform HIV voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) but understanding their limitations is vital to delivering quality VCT. Objective: To determine the sensitivity and specificity of HIV rapid tests used for research and voluntary counselling and testing at four sites in East Africa. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Masaka District, Uganda; a sugar plantation in Kakira, Uganda; Coastal Villages in the Kilifi District of Kenya; and the Urban slum of Kangemi located West of Nairobi, Kenya. Subjects: Six thousands two hundred and fifty five consenting volunteers were enrolled into the study, and 675 prevalent HIV infections were identified. Results: The RT sensitivity tended to be high for all assays at all sites (97.63-100%) with the exception of the Uni-Gold assay (90.24% in Kangemi, 96.58% in Kilifi). Twenty four RT results were recorded as ‘weak positives’, 22 (92%) of which were negative by ELISA. There was a high rate of RT false positives in Uganda (positive predictive values ranging from 45.70% to 86.62%). Conclusions: The sensitivity and specificity of the RT varied significantly across sites. The rate of RT misclassification in Uganda suggests that a multiple test algorithm may be preferable to a single test as screener for HIV VCT.


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