PERFOMANCE OF THE CMIP5 MODELS IN SIMULATION OF PRESENT AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN

Citation:
WANZALA ANYANGOMAUREEN, Ogallo LA, Opijah FJ, Mutemi JN. PERFOMANCE OF THE CMIP5 MODELS IN SIMULATION OF PRESENT AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN. Nairobi: UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI; 2015.

Abstract:

The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. The reduction of errors increases the reliability of the information. Therefore, for any given region to have sustainable development there is need to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans.
The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The data used in the study included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia (CRU) and hindcast data from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for the period 1971 to 2005 for historical and 2006-2100 for model future projections. The methodology employed included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score.

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