Improving multimodel medium range forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa using the FSU superensemble

Citation:
Kipkogei O, Bhardwaj A, Kumar V, Ogallo LA, Opijah FJ, Mutemi JN, Krishnamurti TN. "Improving multimodel medium range forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa using the FSU superensemble." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 2016;128(4):441-451.

Abstract:

This study makes use of the WMO’s multimodel data set called THORPEX integrated grand global ensemble (TIGGE) towards the construction of multimodel superensemble forecasts covering a period of 10 days. The goal of this study is to explore the forecast skill for precipitation forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa (this is a consortium of 11 countries). The multimodels include forecast data set from a suite of models that include: The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Center for Weather Forecast and Climatic Studies (CPTEC) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO). After performing a training phase for the superensemble weights covering the previous 450 days of October, November and December months of 2008–2012, forecasts of precipitation were prepared for the multimodel

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