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PROF. MUTUA FRANCIS MUSYOKA CV

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(Last updated: March 15, 2013)

Publications

2014

Ngaina, JN, Mutua FM, Muthama NJ, Kirui JW, Sabiiti G, Mukhala E, NW Maingi BKM.  2014.  Drought monitoring in Kenya: A case of Tana River County. International Journal of Agricultural Science Research. 3(7):126-135. AbstractAcademe Research Journals

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to assess past, present and projected drought conditions
while Mann Kendall trend test and coefficient of variability is used for trend analysis. Observed data
from National Meteorological and Hydrological Centre in Kenya and simulated data based on Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 from Providing Region Climate for Impact Studies
(PRECIS) Model and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 Wm-2
and RCP 6.0 Wm-2
from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) were used. Observed
datasets (rainfall and temperature), projected temperature (A1B and A2, RCP 4.5 Wm-2
and RCP 6.0 Wm2
) and rainfall (A2 and RCP 6.0 Wm-2
) all showed monotonic trend. A1B scenario had no significant
trend. Decreasing patterns observed from SPI values based on observations showed increase in dry
conditions. Although projected rainfall showed a decreasing trend, the frequency and magnitude of
drought events increased under all future scenarios. Risk analysis based on observed data showed that
north and central region of Tana River county were susceptible to intense droughts conditions and
projected shift northwards under all scenarios. The susceptibility of the region to drought conditions is
thus expected to increase conflicts due to limited water resources, pasture and food insecurity in the
region and thus limit achievement of Kenya’s long term development envisioned in the Vision 2030.
Key words: Climate change, drought, livestock production, scenarios, semi arid.
al, FME.  2014.  Flood Forecasting over Lower Nzoia Sub-Basin in Kenya. Africa Journal of Physical Sciences. 1-1 2014jos.pdf

2013

Balint, Z, Mutua F, Muchiri P, Omuto CT.  2013.  Monitoring Drought with the Combined Drought Index in Kenya. Kenya: A Natural Outlook. , Edinburgh, London: Elsevier Inc. Chapters Abstract

A first step in any drought management system is to monitor the state and the evolution of the drought. This study addresses the problem of nonexistent operational drought monitoring systems and presents a new methodology for monitoring the evolution and severity of drought with the new, Combined Drought Index (CDI). It is based on the fact that drought is a natural phenomenon created by a combination of several factors, such as deficiency in rainfall amount, persistence of below average rainfall, temperature excess and soil moisture characteristics. By combining the factors in the preceding text, the CDI compares present conditions with multiyear average (normal) conditions for the same time period. The methodology was applied at selected locations of different climate zones in Kenya. The results were compared with available official records of drought events (impacts), showing a very good positive relationship between the two. An attempt to detect the long-term trends of drought events using the CDI indicates that there is an increasing trend of drought events in the country, while the drought severity is not necessarily getting worse in all stations. The CDI method also revealed the possibility of drought early warning and drought-related climate change analysis in Kenya.

2012

Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P, Willems P, Mutua FM, Moges SA.  2012.  An elusive search for regional flood frequency estimates in the River Nile Basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16(9):3149-3163. AbstractHydrology and Earth System Sciences

Estimation of peak flow quantiles in ungauged catchments is a challenge often faced by water professionals in many parts of the world. Approaches to address such problem exist, but widely used techniques such as flood frequency regionalisation is often not subjected to performance evaluation. In this study, the jack-knifing principle is used to assess the performance of the flood frequency regionalisation in the complex and data-scarce River Nile basin by
examining the error (regionalisation error) between locally and regionally estimated peak flow quantiles for different
return periods (QT ). Agglomerative hierarchical clustering based algorithms were used to search for regions with similar hydrological characteristics. Hydrological data employed were from 180 gauged catchments and several physical characteristics in order to regionalise 365 identified catchments.
The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, selected using L-moment based approach, was used to construct regional growth curves from which peak flow growth factors could be derived and mapped through interpolation. Inside each region, variations in at-site flood frequency distribution were modelled by regression of the mean annual maximum peak flow (MAF) versus catchment area. The results showed that the performance of the regionalisation is heavily dependent on the historical flow record length and the similarity of the hydrological characteristics inside the regions. The flood frequency regionalisation of the River Nile basin can be improved if sufficient flow data of longer record length of at least 40 yr become available.

2011

et.al, GDB.  2011.  A Critical Discussion of Recent Studies Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Nile basin. Nile Basin Water Science & Engineering Journal. 4(2):94-100. AbstractResearchGate

This note provides a concise presentation of the state-of-the-art methods to assess climate change impacts on water systems with reference to the Nile basin. In particular, recent studies dealing with climate change in the Nile basin are summarized and guidelines for dealing with uncertainty in planning water resources in a changing climate are illustrated. The paper also includes potential strategy recommendations to policy and decision makers for planning adaptation measures in the water sector. In particular, the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Nile basin as well as the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose adaptation strategies and measures are discussed.
Key Words: Nile, Climate Change, Hydrology, Water Resources, Uncertainty, Decision Makers.
Mutua, F, Balint Z.  2011.  Analysis of the general climatic conditions to support drought monitoring in Somalia. , Nairobi, Kenya: FAO and Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) Nairobi, Kenya
Mutua, FM.  2011.  A Curse or Blessing?, October 10th Kenya Meteorological Society Conference. , Mombasa, Kenya
Baldassarre, DG, Elshamy M, Soliman E, Kigobe M, Ndomba P, Mutemi J, Mutua F, Moges S, Y X.  2011.  Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin. 3. G. Di Baldassarre, M. Elshamy, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, Y, Xuan (2011): Future hydrology anHydrological Sciences Journal. 56(2):199-211.
Kiluva, VM, Mutua F, Makhanu SK, Ong’or BTI.  2011.  Application of the Geological Streanflow Model in the Yala River Basin of Western Kenya.. International Journal of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction (IJDMRR) (ISSN: 1992-27. Vol. 3(3):pp22-33..
Kiluva, VM, Mutua F, Makhanu SK, Ong’or BTI.  2011.  Rainfall Runoff Modeling in Yala River Basin of Kenya. Journal of Meteorology and Related Sciences (ISSN:1995-9834). . Special Issue Vol 5(1) AbstractUoN Digital Repository

When rainfall is received on a watershed, depending on the ini al soil moisture content some of the water seeps underground while the excess forms surface water response. The nature of the runoff and its effects in the watershed can be represented by the applica on of hydrologic models to predict streamfl ow. In this study, the Geological Streamfl ow Model (GeoSFM) and the Muskingum Cunge (M-C) model were used to model the hydrologic processes of the Yala river network. The objec ve of the study was to develop a flood early warning system to mi gate poten al fl ood hazard risk exposed to the downstream inhabitants. Historical hydro-metric datasets of 1975-2005 were used for calibra on, verifi ca on and streamfl ow rou ng based on a split record analysis. For the runoff genera on, rainfall and evapora on datasets were provided by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) while for model calibra on and verifi ca on, streamfl ow was obtained from Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA). To determine the hydrologic connec vity, the 30 meters by 30 meters Digital Eleva on Model was obtained from the Interna onal Centre for Research in Agro-Forestry (ICRAF). The Digital Soil Map of the World developed by Food and Agricultural Organiza on (FAO) and the Global Land Cover data of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for model pa- rameteriza on. The soil moisture accoun ng and rou ng method transferred water through the subsurface, overland and river phases. The percentage of the square of the correla on coeffi cient (R2% value) was used to determine model performance. The GeoSFM modeled streamfl ow at the Bondo streamflow gauging sta on, coded 1FG02 where during the calibra on and verifi ca on phases, streamfl ow was modeled at R2 value of 80.6% and 87.3% respec vely. The M-C model routed streamfl ow from 1FG02 to the Kadenge streamflow gauging sta on, coded 1FG03 at R2 value of 90.8%, Muskingum K value of 2.76 hours and Muskingum X value of 0.4609. The error in predicted peak streamfl ow was 2.3% with a posi ve 1.5% error in predicted speed. This ensured a forecast of the me of peak streamfl ow on the safe side before the actual fl ood peak arrival at 1FG03 sta on. It was concluded that the GeoSFM and M-C models were hence useful tools for flood mi ga- on by issuing fl ood early warning messages defi ned by peak streamfl ow and fl ood wave travel me.

2010

Mutua, FM, Zaki AF.  2010.  Analyses of Annual Droughts in Kenya Using an Objective Annual Rainfall Drought Index.. Journal of Met and Related Sciences. 4:21-23.

2009

Githui, FW, Mutua FM, Bauwens W.  2009.  Estimating the impacts of land cover change on runoff using SWAT: Case study: Nzoia catchment, Kenya. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 54(5):899-908..
Githui, FW, Gitau W, Mutua FM, Bauwens W.  2009.  Climate change impact on SWAT simulated streamflow in Western Kenya. Inter. J. Climatol. . 29(12):1823–1834..
Willems, P, Ogiramoi NP, Mutua F, Abdo G, Kabubi J, Fahmi AH, Sonbol M, Lotfy A, Kimaro TA, Mkhandi S, Opere AI.  2009.  Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for the River Nile Basin. Bull. Séanc. Acad. R. Sci. Outre-Mer / Meded. Zitt. K.Acad. Overzeese Wet.. 55(4):555-570.

2008

WILSON, DRGITAU, M PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  2008.  Githui, F., Gitau, W., Mutua, F. and Bauwens, W., 2008: Climate change impact on SWAT simulated streamflow in Western Kenya. Inter. J. Climatol., 29(12), 1823 . journal. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

2007

  2007.  Assessment of impacts climate change on runoff: River Nzoia catchment, Kenya. 4th International SWAT conference. :81-92. AbstractSWAT

To investigate the impact of climate change on runoff of Nzoia river catchment in Kenya (and other water balance components)
Githui, FW, Mutua F, Bauwens W.  2007.  Assessing the impacts of environmental change on the hydrology of the Nzoia catchment, in the Lake Victoria Basin. , Brussel: Vrije Universiteit Brussel Abstract

The main objective of this study was to assess the past and potential future environmental changes, and their impact on the hydrology of the Nzoia catchment. More specifically, the study has analyzed the historical climatic (1962-2004) and land cover changes (1973-2001) that have taken place in the Nzoia River catchment in Kenya, and the effect these have had on the hydrology of the catchment. It has also made use of land cover and climate change scenarios for the future to determine the potential effects these will have on the catchment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate the impact of land cover and climatic change on streamflow of the study area. The model was set up using readily available spatial and temporal data, and calibrated against measured daily discharge. The land cover changes within the watershed were examined through classification of satellite images and a land cover change model generated the land cover change scenarios for the year 2020. Climate change scenarios were obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) for the period 2010-2039 (ie 2020s) and 2040-2069 (ie 2050s). The climate change IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. To this purpose, rainfall and temperature scenarios based on the GCMs CCSR, CSIRO, ECHAM4, GFDL and HADCM3 were superimposed on the calibrated SWAT model.
Ndetei, CJ, Opere AO, Mutua FM.  2007.  Flood frequency analysis in Lake Victoria basin based on tail behavior of distributions. Journal of Kenya Met Soc: ISSN 1995-9834.. 1(1):pp.44-54.

2006

kITHIIA, SM, Mutua FM.  2006.  4 Experiment-based and Modelling Approaches to Sediment Research-Impacts of land-use changes on sediment yields and water quality within the Nairobi River sub-basins, Kenya.
Dharmadhikary, V. Mutua, FM.  2006.  Radiating Slots in a Thick Conducting Broad Wall of a Rectangular Waveguide, 2-3 september. National Conference on Broadband Communication Systems . , Pune(India)
Mutua, FM.  2006.  A Variable Transformation Function of Annual Mean Flood Data for an Improved Application of the General Extreme Value Distribution Using Tanzania Flood data. . Kenya Journal of Sciences.. Series A & B Special Edition (2005)

2003

francis Musyoka, M.  2003.  The need for a flood forecasting system in Kenya. The need for a flood forecasting system in Kenya
Opere, AO, Mutua FM, Ogallo LA.  2003.  The need for a flood forecasting system in Kenya. Journal of African Meteorological Society. 6(1):6-14.

2002

Opere, AO, Mutua FM, Ogallo LA.  2002.  Stream flow regionalization using discordancy and heterogeneity measure statistics. Journal of African Meteorological Society . 5(2):71-76.
O, DROPEREALFRED, M PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  2002.  The need for a flood forecasting system in Kenya (revised). Journal of African Meteorological Society, March 2002. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

2001

Karanja, F, Ogallo LJ, Mutua FM, Oludhe C, Kisia SM.  2001.  Kenya country case study: Impacts and responses to the 1997-98 El Nino event.

2000

Mutua, FM.  2000.  A Comparison of the General Circulation Models and Trend based Projections of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in East Africa. African Journal of Science and Technology. 1(1):26-38.

1999

Mutua, FM.  1999.  River Flow Forecasting Using the Difference Equation Linear Model with Dryness Correction. Journ, African Met. Society. 4
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1999.  River Flow Forecasting Using the Difference Equation Linear Model with Dryness Correction. Journ, African Met. Society, Vol. 4.. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1999.  A Comparison of the General Circulation Models and Trend based Projections of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in East Africa.. African Journal of Science and Technology. Vol. 1 No. 1.. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1998

Mutua, FM.  1998.  Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle in Tana River Basin to climate change. Website
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1998.  Report on the Impacts of climate change on Water Resources in the Upper Ewaso Ngiro basin. National Environmental Secretariat, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1997

Mutua, FM.  1997.  The Four Parameter General Extreme Value Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis. Kenya Journal. of Appl. Sc. and Tech. Vol.12(1&2).
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1997.  The Four Parameter General Extreme Value Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis. Kenya Journal of Appli. Sci. and Tech Vol.12 (1&2). : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1994

M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1994.  Persistence of Droughts and their Implications on the the Utilization and Management of Water Resources in Africa. Proc. of the Int. Conf. on Efficient Utilization and Management of Water Resour. in Africa. Khartoum. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1993

Basalirwa, CPK, Ogallo LJ, Mutua FM.  1993.  Delineation of regional rainfall zones for hydrological studies in Uganda.
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1993.  Design of a Regional Minimum Raingauge Network. Water Resources Dev. Vol. 9 No.4. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1990

M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1990.  The Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Meteorological Droughts in East Africa. Third WMO symposium on Meteorological aspects of Tropical droughts. WMO/TN No. 353. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.
M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1990.  The Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Meteorological Droughts in East Africa. Third WMO symposium on Meteorological aspects of Tropical droughts. WMO/TN No. 353. : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

1989

M, PROFMUTUAFRANCIS.  1989.  Transfer Function Hydrological Modeling - A case Study. Journal.Appl. Hydrology Vol. 2(2). : International Journal of Climatology Abstract
A double antibody enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for identification of thermostable muscle antigens of autoclaved meat samples is described. The assay differentiates heterologous thermostable muscle antigens from homologous at P 0.001. In model meat mixtures, the assay detects adulterants at the level of 1% at p0.001 even in phylogenetically related species such as buffalo and cattle.

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