Senior lecturer


 2011 to Present:  External Examiner Department of Population Studies, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda


 Proficient in SPSS, LIMDEP; working knowledge of STATA, SAS and MlWIN


My general area of interest is statistical demography and in particular the use of event history methods. Event history models are statistical methods that study the occurrence and the timing of events which central to population studies – rate of occurrence and rate of change. When events occur individuals change their status – being migrant, married unemployed etc hence event history encompass change of status or transitions. Alongside this focus my interest lies in studies on fertility transition, determinants of transitions and statuses as well as behavioral and structural determinants. This is because some features of human behavior are described naturally in terms of streams of events experienced by individuals or in terms of individuals who occasionally move between various life statuses. Job careers, spells of unemployment, sickness histories, social and geographic mobility, demographic family dynamics, and many other types of individual risk or behavior are of this nature. In some cases, selectivity (unobserved heterogeneity) is an important ingredient, in that the events in question are more likely for individuals with certain characteristics beyond those recorded in the data. Therefore my research has focused along these lines on policies and programs, comparative studies within African perspective and monitoring and evaluation of programs.




2012-2013: Analysis age patterns of mortality in Kenya. Towards Model life table for Kenya. This is an attempt to establish models life tables for Kenyan counties and act as a reference model life table for benchmarking and determination of changes in overall mortality rates in Kenya. Preliminary works is expected to be presented at the International Union for the scientific study of population to be held in Busan Korea and final works at the Union of African studies population conference in 2014. A working paper will be generated


Source of funding: None



2008 - 2009: Influencing Policy and Financing Reforms to Improve Access to Family Planning for the Poor in Kenya. The purpose of this study was to understand the issues behind low family planning access by the poor other than the policy and programmatic issues. The assessment was also expected to come out with strategies that could be used to reach the poor and therefore improve their use of FP and hence reduce continued inequities in access to use of family planning in the country.


Source of funding: Health Policy Initiative through U.S. Agency for International Development under Contract No. GPO-I-01-05-00040-00,


2006-2007: Assessment of the link between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya. The study focused on both individual and contextual community HIV/AIDS factors and role of the proximate fertility determinants.  The main objectives of the study was to examine regional variations in the link between HIV/AIDS and fertility; explore possible mechanisms through which HIV/AIDS influences fertility; and examine the effect of individual and contextual community level HIV/AIDS factors on fertility.


Source of funding: MEASURE Evaluation project of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).


2002-2006: Adolescent Safe Motherhood Survey (ASMS) of 2002, The survey was carried out by the African Population and Health Research Center, in collaboration with the Opportunities and Choices Reproductive Health Research Programme of the University of Southampton, and the Population Studies Research Institute, University of Nairobi.. The objective of this study was to explore the context of adolescent pregnancy in the South Nyanza region of Kenya – an area of exceptionally high levels of maternal and infant mortality, low contraceptive prevalence, and early initiation of sexual activity.


Source of funding: World Health Organization.


2001- 2004: Urban integration in Africa: A socio-demographic survey of greater Nairobi. The main purpose of this study was to measure the medium and long-term effects of macro-economic changes on access to job market, access to housing and demographic behaviour. It was also intended to provide policy makers in the social sector with indicators that can readily be used to improve measures for poverty reduction in the target groups. Key methodology was the event history methods based on triple Biography of sampled individuals.


Source of funding: French Institute for Research In Africa, (IFRA), Rockefeller Foundation, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Institute for Research and Development (IRD), and the University of Nairobi.


2006-2007:  Contraceptive use Dynamics in Kenya: Analysis of method choice and discontinuation. This study aimed at identifying correlates of contraceptive method choice and also the experiences and behaviour of women who have used contraception. This was to enable the understanding of the overall effectiveness of family planning program goals aimed at fulfilling the reproductive health needs of the Kenyan women at a time when contraceptive use seemed to have reached a plateau.


Source of funding: MEASURE Evaluation project of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).



2012: Alfred Agwanda. Trends in intra regional migration in Kenya. Working Paper submitted to United Nations Statistical Division. UNSD on Regional project on “Strengthening National Capacity to Analyze, Present and Disseminate Census Data for Evidence-based Policy Making


2012: Alfred Agwanda. Patterns of Female First Marriage in Sub Saharan Africa.  Paper submitted to Dounia. revue d'intelligence stratégique et des relations internationals  under the Theme: Population and development challenges in sub-Saharan Africa


2009: Alfred Agwanda, A. Khasakhala and M. Kimani. Assessment of Family Planning Services in Kenya: Evidence from the 2004 Kenya Service Provision Assessment Survey. Kenya Working Papers No.4. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Macro International Inc.


2007: Monica Magadi and Alfred Agwanda. The Link between HIV/AIDS and Recent Fertility Patterns in Kenya. MEASURE Evaluation Working paper WP-07-92 January 2007


2006: Alfred Agwanda: Contraceptive Use Dynamics In Kenya: Analysis Of Method Choice And Discontinuation. In A closer look at KDHS 2003: Further Analysis of Contraceptive Prevalence and Fertility Stalls – Summaries of Selected NCAPD Working Papers. Pp 16-18.  MEASURE Evaluation Publication paper Number tr-06-40-en


2004: Alfred Agwanda  P. Bocquier, A Khasakhala, and S Owuor: The effect of economic crisis on youth precariousness in Nairobi: An analysis of itinerary to adulthood of three generations of men and women. Document De Travail DT/2004/04 Développment et insertion Internationale (DIAL) : http:// publications/pdf travail/2004_04.pdf .


2004: Monica Magadi, Alfred Agwanda, Francis Obare and Negussie Taffa Comparing maternal health indicators between teenagers and older women in sub- Saharan Africa. Southampton Statistical Sciences and Research Institute, University of Southampton Working Paper A03/18

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